The Prairie Star: Montana Ag Newspaper

Before Al Gore there was Lester R. Brown and the Worldwatch Institute, and long before him there was Robert Malthus, an English economist of the late 18th century. All three shared the view that humankind is altering the world's environment or using up resources or both in a headlong rush to environmental disaster, human misery and social upheaval, if not the end of the world itself.

At a time when the world's population was only 1 billion, Malthus predicted food scarcity would keep a lid on population growth. He said as population bumped up against the limits of the world's food supply, famine, poverty, disease and war would bring things into balance.

Malthus was right about one thing. Food is necessary for human existence. But he was wrong about the world being unable to feed itself. The United Nations' Food and Agricultural Organization recently concluded that growth in global agriculture is more than sufficient to meet world food demand in the year 2030, even if the population is 8 billion by then.

Throughout recent history, agriculture has defied the preachers of gloom and doom. However, American farmers have always been optimistic and able to meet a challenge. This was obvious as early as World War I, when farmers boosted production to feed our troops and a devastated Europe. Now farmers are accepting the challenge of producing renewable energy.

In his 1991 book, Saving the Planet, Brown likened the end of the 20th century to the tragic tale of the Titanic. In his view, we were the doomed passengers because of “our inability to comprehend the scale of the ongoing degradation of the planet and how it will affect our future.”

Yes, there is environmental degradation. Look anywhere that wars have been raging in Africa or the Middle East and you will find it. But the rest of the world is making progress, particularly on the conservation front. In a recent 15-year period, the annual rate of soil erosion in the United States declined from 3.1 billion tons to 1.9 billon tons per year, a 40-percent drop.

Brown, who now heads the Earth Policy Institute, used to warn about the consequences of acid rain. We don't hear as much about acid rain today. Its place has been taken by global warming, the subject that former Vice President Al Gore addressed in his documentary, An Inconvenient Truth.

Yes, the climate is changing. The Earth and its climate are dynamic and always will change. In the 1950s, we were told a nuclear war was almost inevitable and it would be followed by a nuclear winter that would plunge us into another Ice Age. Nowadays, we are warned that global warming will heat up the planet and plunge us into an expanding sea.

Gloom and doom scenarios can be used to push the agenda for a new world order and vast changes in the economy and personal freedoms. Worldwatch Institute's latest agenda includes eliminating modern livestock production. These agendas will never be realized, of course, unless we become sufficiently frightened about the future, or we become complacent about shedding the light of reality on such doom and gloom scenarios.

Stewart Truelsen is a regular contributor to the American Farm Bureau Federation's weekly Focus on Agriculture series.

Comments »

Roger Sizemore wrote on Oct 5, 2006 7:02 PM:

" This essay fails to face up to some really obvious facts of our existence. First of all, Malthus hasn't been proven wrong - his work is as true today as it was when he wrote it. That we've managed to use our wits to temporarily outsmart the reaper can't be used against the man. Our solutions are simply creating new problems to divert us. Let's face it. The ag business runs the heartland of the US, and has itself become wholly dependent on the petrochemical industry for its continued prosperity. It currently takes anywhere from five to ten calories of carbon energy to produce one calorie of comestible product. As we all know, oil isn't a renewable energy source, and in spite of occasional quirks in the market, the price will go up as supplies decline. Therefore, the highest priority of the producers has to be a continued emphasis on this product until there is no more. It's a gold-plated investment guaranteed to appreciate over time. The oil companies hate the subject of climate change, and so does agribusiness. However, I think it would behoove farmers everywhere to begin looking at the relationship they have to the oil barons, and reconsider their priorities. The same dynamics that will assure maximum return on the dollar for the oilmen also affect the farmer - but in a very negative way. As the effects of climate change dry up fields in some places and cover others with toxic sludge blown in by hurricanes, it's going to be harder and harder to bring in a profitable harvest. Farming successfully has always depended on the ability to record and forecast climate conditions. Our shared knowledge of the planet's weather gathered over the ages will be of no help when the weather no longer does what it always did. May I also remind your readers that talk of "a new world order" first came from the lips of an oilman, and is used here as a dishonest rhetorical device to spook those who have a close relationship with the soil of our country. We face some very difficult times - possibly even gloom and doom. I don't think so, because I believe in our ingenuity and fundamental goodness to pull us through. I'm no great fan of Al Gore as a politician, but I can accept his new job as a preacher. Even if he's wrong-which no informed sources believe- his vision is far more likely to serve the interests of the American people than the profiteering of the oil and war party that's running the country now. Thank you for your time. "

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